The near-vertical rise in precious metals over the last month has led to extremes in bullish sentiment. Investors are beginning to chase prices, and this frequently occurs near an intermediate top.
Our Gold Cycle Indicator reached max cycle topping (450), signifying a potential peak in precious metals.
The dollar has declined over 10% from the March high. The trend is incredibly oversold and due for a multi-week rebound. Gold and precious metals should correct as the dollar works off its deeply oversold conditions.
After breaking out above $1800 in July, gold entered a near-vertical advance taking prices above $2000. On Friday, prices reversed and formed a large bearish engulfing candle enhancing the potential for a top.
Closing back below $2000 would complete a spike-high and support a multi-week correction. Primary support comes in around $1775, with a secondary target near $1670.
Silver entered a parabolic rise above $20.00, and the trend is very overbought. If prices stay below $30.00, I think we likely have a cycle top. Initial support comes in around $22.50, below that $19.00. An extended breakout above $30.00 would support a quick run to $35.00.
Miners closed below Wednesday’s black exhaustion candle, supporting a cycle top. Initial support arrives at $37.00, followed by $31.00.
Once gold and silver bottom in September, we expect prices to rally sharply into January 2021 as the dollar finishes the decline into its 3-year cycle low.
AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information, please visit here.