Gold prices are trading sharply higher on Thursday shortly before the regular session opening. The market spiked to the upside early in the session when buyers took out yesterday’s high at $1366.60. The move was triggered by speculators betting on a Fed rate cut in July and the news that Iran had shot down a U.S. drone. The weaker U.S. Dollar is also fueling increased demand for dollar-denominated gold. Helping to keep a lid on prices is increasing demand for higher risk assets.
At 11:36 GMT, August Comex gold is trading $1385.40, up $36.40 or +2.70%. The high for the session is $1397.70.
Daily Technical Analysis
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed when buyers took out $1366.50. The next upside target is the January 25, 2018 main top at $1413.30. The main trend will change to down on a trade through $1323.60.
The contract range is $1413.30 to $1202.00. Its retracement zone at $1332.60 to $1307.70 is support. This zone is also controlling the longer-term direction of the market.
Daily Technical Forecast
Based on the early price action, the direction of the August Comex gold market the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the steep uptrending Gann angle at $1379.60.
A sustained move over $1379.60 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the main top at $1413.30. Taking out this level could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the next target angle coming in at $1442.60. Overcoming this angle will put the market in an extremely bullish position.
A sustained move under $1379.60 will signal the return of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the uptrending Gann angle at $1358.60. Since the main trend is up, buyers are likely to come in on a test of this angle.
If $1358.60 fails as support then look for the selling to extend into the next uptrending Gann angle at $1351.60. This angle has been guiding the market higher since June 11. If it fails then look for a test of $1337.60.
We’re currently in a news driven market. Traders are going to have to decide whether to buy strength or play for a pullback into support.