Comex Gold

Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Rate Hikes, Recession Worries Fueling Mixed Trade

Gold futures are trading mixed on Friday, but was still in a position to lose more than 1% for the week. Hurting demand for bullion is a rebound in Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. Dollar. The overall bearish tone for the week is being driven, however, by hawkish policy signals from the global central bank community even as recessionary clouds gather.

At 12:10 GMT, August Comex gold is trading $1848.40, down $1.50 or -0.08%. On Thursday, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) settled at $172.71, up $1.94 or +1.14%.

While gold’s appeal this week is being hit hard by aggressive tightening measures from central banks from around the world to curb inflation, bullion could garner some support over the near-term if the odds of a U.S. recession continue rising.

Daily August Comex Gold

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1882.50 will change the main trend to up. A move through $1806.10 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The market is currently straddling a retracement cluster ranging from $1854.80 to $1826.60, but the key level to watch is the long-term Fibonacci level at $1844.00. Determining the near-term direction of the market is likely to be trader reaction to the Fib level.

On the upside, the nearest resistance is a pair of 50% levels at $1890.00 and $1900.70.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to the long-term Fibonacci level at $1844.00 is likely to determine the direction of the August Comex gold futures contract into the close on Friday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1844.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first upside target is the minor 50% level at $1854.80.

Overtaking $1854.80 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could create the momentum needed to accelerate into the main top at $1882.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1844.00 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a labored break with potential targets coming in at $1837.30 and $1826.60.

A break through $1826.60 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This could trigger a sharp break into the main bottom at $1806.10.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Published by

James Hyerczyk

James A. Hyerczyk has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann.