Gold futures are inching lower on light volume early Monday as investors wait for guidance from U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar ahead of today’s U.S. Manufacturing PMI report and Friday’s key U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report that could determine the tone of the market for the month.
At 06:02 GMT, December Comex gold futures are trading $1812.00, down $5.20 or -0.29%.
Chairman Jerome Powell said last week interest rate hikes were “ways away” and the job market still had “some ground to cover,” which sent gold jumping more than 1% last Thursday. This puts added weight on the importance of Friday’s jobs report. Last Friday, gold gave back most of the previous session’s gains after a report showed the pace of inflation slowing.
With the Fed not meeting until September 21-22, gold prices are expected to be more sensitive to U.S. economic data. Today at 14:00 GMT, the ISM Manufacturing PMI report is expected to come in at 60.8, down from 60.6.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1839.00 will reaffirm the uptrend. A move through $1795.60 and $1793.10 will change the main trend to down.
The minor range is $1793.10 to $1837.50. The market is currently straddling its 50% level at $1815.30.
The short-term range is $1910.10 to $1754.50. Its retracement zone at $1839.90 to $1859.70 is the primary upside target and resistance. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the market.
The major support is the long-term 50% level at $1795.00.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
The direction of the December Comex gold market on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $1815.30.
A sustained move under $1815.30 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the support cluster at $1795.60 to $1793.10.
A sustained move over $1815.30 will signal the presence of buyers. The first upside target is a pivot at $1824.50. Overtaking this level could create the momentum needed to challenge the upside pivot at $1837.50 to $1839.90.