Gold futures finished slightly lower on Friday after clawing back earlier losses. Despite reports in the press and from some lazy analysts, the market did not make its low of the session following the release of the stronger-than-expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report.
During the pre-market session, gold futures hit a low of $1683.00. Shortly after the release of the report, gold plunged to $1683.80. This is significant because it represents a potentially bullish divergence from U.S. Treasury yields which touched a new high for the year after the jobs data was released.
Although gold futures closed lower for the session on Friday, it actually closed higher than it was trading immediately before the release of the robust jobs report. In my opinion, this was an important event that could translate into higher prices this upcoming week.
On Friday, April Comex gold futures settled at $1698.50, down $2.20 or -0.13%.
More importantly, at 13:30 GMT, gold was trading $1693.70. So following the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, gold closed up $4.80 or +0.28%.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1683.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a trade through $1815.20.
The minor trend is also down. A trade through $1739.10 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.
The major retracement zone is $1711.70 to $1787.30. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the market. Gold closed on the weak side of this zone, but just below the lower or Fibonacci level at $1711.70.
The minor range is $1815.20 to $1683.00. Its 50% level at $1749.10 is the first short-term upside target price.
The short-term range is $1966.80 to $1683.00. If the main trend changes to up then look for the rally to extend into its retracement zone at $1824.90 to $1858.40.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
The direction of the April Comex gold market on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major Fibonacci level at $1711.70.
A sustained move under $1711.70 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first downside target is Friday’s low at $1683.00, followed by the April 21, 2020 bottom at $1683.00.
A sustained move over $1711.70 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the buying to extend into the minor bottom at $1739.10. This is followed by the minor 50% level at $1749.10.
The 50% level at $1749.10 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into at least the major 50% level at $1787.30.
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