Gold Price Prediction – Prices Edge Higher on Strong Homebuilder Index

Gold prices continued to consolidate and attempted to move higher as the dollar declined. US yields moved higher which weighed on gold prices following a stronger than expected US Homebuilder Index. Concerns over the US general election and a surge in coronavirus cases in the UK have helped buoy the yellow metal. Gold volatility has eased and is currently trading near the lowest levels seen since the pandemic started to spread in February. Currently, gold “at the money” implied volatility is trading just shy of 21%.

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Technical analysis

Gold prices edged higher trading sideways and making little headway. Prices remain above short term support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,902. Resistance is seen near the 50-day moving average at 1,924. Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal on the upper end of the neutral range. Medium-term momentum remains neutral as the MACD histogram prints in the black with an upward sloping trajectory that points to a slow trend higher.

Home Building Index Surges

Homebuilders continue to see expanding demand and are struggling to keep up with housing starts. The Homebuilder sentiment set a record high for the second month in a row, jumping to 85 in October on the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. September and October are the first two months the index has ever been above 80. This is a diffusion index with levels above 50 showing an expansion. The index stood at 71 in October 2019. All three components of the index either set records or matched their highest readings. The current sales conditions rose 2 points to 90. Sales expectations in the next six months increased 3 points to 88, and buyer traffic was unchanged at 74.