Gold Price Prediction – Prices Fall as the Dollar Rallies Paving the Way for Lower Gold Prices

Gold prices continued to decline as the dollar rallied paving the way for lower gold prices Since gold is priced in dollars, it generally adjusts lower as it becomes more expensive in other currencies excluding the greenback. The U.S. 10-year yield reversed its rally, but the 2-year yield remained strong. Jobless claims came in larger than expected which is critical following Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting.

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Technical analysis

Gold prices moved lower declining for the 4th consecutive trading day, and poised to Test the November 2020 lows of 1,764. Resistance is seen near the 50-day moving average at 1,830.  Short-term momentum is negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. Prices are oversold. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 8, below the oversold trigger level of 20 which could foreshadow a correction. Medium-term momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. The MACD histogram is printing in negative territory with a declining trajectory which points to lower prices.

Jobless Claims Rise

The Labor Department reported that Initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose last week despite an ongoing recovery. First-time filings for unemployment insurance for the week ended June 12 totaled 412,000, compared with the previous week’s 375,000. Expectations were for a decline to 360,000. This is interesting in the wake of the Fed’s decision as employment is the key for higher rates. If claims continue to remain elevated, the Fed will remain on hold.