Grains Bounce Slightly Following Last Weeks Drop

Grain prices are mixed on Monday bouncing near support levels after declining for most of last week. Solid soybean export sales failed to lift soybean prices. Weather reports forecast the onset of spring-like conditions in the central US, that should allow farmers to make up for recent delays in planting this year’s corn and Soybeans. By contrast, wetter forecasts for the southern Plains, where the wheat crop has suffered through a drought, also pressured grain prices. Receding supply threats have prompted hedge funds and other speculative investors to pull out of some bets that prices would rise.

Corn Prices

Corn prices have edged in early North American trade.  Prices bounced at support near and upward sloping trend line that comes in near 3.75.  Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 3.84. Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

Soybean Prices

Soybean oil 2017/18 export sales of 28,000 metric tons were up 27% from last week but 18% less than the prior 4-week average. There were no new crop sales, leaving total sales at 28 TMT. Combined season sales were up 27% and within analyst expectations that ranged from 15 to 30 TMT. 2017/18 crop year commitments are 82% of forecast and 10% less than last year’s commitments over the same period. Major purchases were made by Peru, Guatemala, and Nicaragua.

Soybean prices are moving sideways below resistance near the 10-day moving average at 1039.   Support is seen near the 50-day moving average at 981. Momentum is neutral as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints near the zero-index level with a flat trajectory which reflects consolidation.

Wheat Prices

Wheat prices moved higher Monday but remain rangebound in early North American trade. Prices are caught in a wedge pattern consolidating in a relatively tight range. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 474. Support is seen near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near  454. Momentum is negative to neutral as the MACD is printing in the black with a downward sloping trajectory which points to consolidation.