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Greenback Giving a Moderate Start in April

The US final GDP reading for Q4 came at +2.9% YoY, with the previous reading at 2.5% and the expectations of 2.7%. This illustrates that the growth slowed down indeed, but not that critically as the analysts had assumed. The indicator was supported by the wholesale inventories that did not go down as much as predicted.

According to the stats, the best quarters for the GDP last year were Q2 (+3.1%) and Q3 (+3.2%), with Q1 being very lackluster and Q4 rather moderate, in the lights of many factors and stats being accumulated. GDP readings are very much important for the greenback, as it gets higher whenever the national economy performs well.

The job market provided the USD with some additional support, with jobless claims falling by 12k to 215k (against 230k expected). These are the best stats since early 1973. The investors got somewhat used to the stability in the US job market, so, as a rule, the greenback does not react very actively. However, this particular reading supported the USD in the lights of the pre-Easter market and a positive trend in the fundamentals.

This week is going to be packed with events for the greenback, as the US is issuing the updated March stats. The mean expectation for the unemployment level is 4% against 4,1% expected previously, while the NFP is expected at 190k or 200k, after the strong February performance (313k), although the latter may still be somewhat adjusted.

The predominant long-term trend in EUR/USD is still ascending. In the short term, an ascending channel is forming, with the previous descending one being broken out. The price tested the resistance after breaking it out, which created a support level for the current channel at 1.2280. The most likely short-term scenario is the price rising to reach the current channel resistance at 1.2555, which coincides with the major high. The major target of this short-term trend may also be at 1.2590. This is confirmed not only by the channel range but also with the previous descending channel, as the market often tries to reach the distance equal to the previous pattern.

EUR/USD 4H Chart
EUR/USD 4H Chart

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.