E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Major Challenge for E-mini NASDAQ-100 at 14821.25 – 15264.75

June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures closed lower on Friday, diverging from the benchmark S&P 500 and Blue Chip Dow Jones Industrial Average futures which ended higher. Tech and other big growth names mostly declined, but they finished off session lows following a late-session rally. For the week, the NASDAQ Composite registered a gain of 2%.

On Friday, the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures contract settled at 14755.75, down 8.00 or -0.05%. The Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF finished at $359.39, down $0.26 or -0.07%.

Technology shares, which are highly sensitive to interest rates, may have been influenced as investors assessed how aggressive the Federal Reserve will be as it tightens policy after Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week said that the central bank needed to move “expeditiously” to combat high inflation and raised the possibility of a 50-basis-point hike in rates in May.

Additionally, U.S. Treasury yields jumped on Friday, with the benchmark 10-year note surging to nearly three-year highs, as the market grappled with high inflation and a Federal Reserve that could easily spark a downturn as it aggressively tightens policy.

In stock related news, Zoom fell 3.2% and DocuSign lost 3.9%, among the NASDAQ’s worst decliners Friday.

Daily June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The next target is the February 2 main top at 15261.25.

A trade through 12942.50 will change the main trend to down. This is highly unlikely but due to the prolonged move up in terms of price and time, the index will begin Monday’s session inside the “Window of Time” for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top chart pattern.

The main range is 16700.00 to 12942.50. Its retracement zone at 14821.25 to 15264.75 is the primary upside target. Trader reaction to this zone will determine the near-term direction of the market.

The intermediate range is 15261.25 to 12942.50. Its retracement zone at 14375.50 to 14101.75 is the nearest support.

Short-Term Outlook

The direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at 14821.25.

Look for a bullish tone on a sustained move over 14821.25. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a potential surge into the main 61.8% level at 15264.75.

A bearish bias could begin on a sustained move under 14821.25. If this generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to extend into the intermediate Fibonacci level at 14375.50. If it fails then look for a break into the intermediate 50% level at 14101.75.

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Published by

James Hyerczyk

James A. Hyerczyk has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann.