Monthly Market Updates on Exotic Crosses (November 2012)

“Though the initial starts were discouraging, I kept going on with the simple reason that if some traders are making money, then there has to be a way.” – Sunil Mangwani

When the markets are really choppy, there can’t be an extended upward or downward bias. When a pair/cross makes an attempt to go down while in a choppy mode, it mayn’t even go beyond the most recent low of the last candle before it flops. This flop may be sudden or may be protracted.

Below is the summary of some of my trading forecasts this month:


Primary trend: Bullish

This pair was essentially bullish for the most part of last month – though not significantly. Another bullish run is expected for this month, especially so as the USD itself has consistently failed to show protracted strength. The ADX +DI is above its –DI counterpart (whereas the ADX itself is far below the level 30, showing that the market pressure is weak). The MACD signal line is moving towards the zero line.

Monthly Market Updates on Exotic Crosses (November 2012)
Monthly Market Updates on Exotic Crosses (November 2012)


Primary trend: Bullish

There is a ‘Buy’ signal on the AUDJPY – since the cross has turned bullish. The ADX 14 period has gone far above the level 30 (showing a strong trend), while the +DI has crossed the –DI to the upside: significantly. The MACD histogram and signal line are both above the zero line. What we have on the chart is therefore a Bullish Confirmation Pattern.



Primary trend: Bullish

Here, the MACD histogram and signal line are above the zero line, but the ADX 14 is not giving a clear direction. There is a distribution zone around 1.5800, and an accumulation zone at 1.5700. Yes, the long-term outlook on the EURNZD remains bullish, but the market itself is not attractive at the present. One would need to wait for a clearer signal before taking any position. 



Primary trend: Bullish

The bullish bias on the EURCAD cross has been very significant. The month of October 2012 saw what could be called a continuation of the northward journey in this market (which moved up by over 350 pips in that month). The ADX line is at the level 30, while the +DI remains above the –DI. The MACD histogram and signal line are conspicuously above the zero line.  



Primary trend: Bullish

The trend on this instrument is now bullish as the Aussie proves to be a kind of stronger than the Kiwi. Lately, the price has been caught in an equilibrium zone; but it will soon go out of this zone. When this happens, it would be more probable for the price to break upwards. There is a Convergence Pattern on the chart – something that shows a potential bullish reversal.



Primary trend: Bearish

This cross went bearish last month, before giving up a large chunk of the bearish trail. The bias still remains bearish, because the Bearish Confirmation Pattern (Divergence) is still available on the chart, although the ADX which is below the level 30 shows that the market pressure is currently weak. Should this bearish determination continue to hold on, the price could reach the support level at 1.4950. 


Conclusion: One trader admits: “I’ve stopped losing too much, and I’ve more patience. I feel better in the markets. Best of all, I’m happy to know that by caring about the safety of my accounts, I’m working for their lasting existence. I used to think that making hundreds of percentage per month is the ultimate goal. But now that I’ve starting risking small to lose small, I wouldn’t trade it for anything!” Loses are common in trading, but they won’t ruin your career unless you let them! In the end, it’s not the losses you encounter in the markets but how you deal with them that’ll make or break your trading career.

The article is ended by more quotes from Sunil Mangwani:

  1. “Trading without stops is like walking the tight rope without a safety net. And if my trade is stopped out by unforeseen circumstances, I just accept the loss as a part of trading and move on to the next trade.”


  1. “Focus on your trading process and not on the outcome. Losing trades are a ‘part and parcel’ of trading and do not expect to get all your trades correct. Accept the losses and learn to see failures and setbacks as opportunities for learning.” 

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