Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis March 29, 2013 Forecast

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis March 29, 2013 Forecast
Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis March 29, 2013 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas has been able to sustain over the $4.00 price level but has given back earlier gains as traders booked profits as natural gas touched $4.08 and is now trading at $4.034. Chilly weather forecasts for at least the next week are helping to support prices. Recent colder-than-normal temperatures on the East Coast are probably the primary reason for the large draw in heating-oil supplies. Natural gas looks strong today as increased heating demand is likely to push prices higher. On its first trading day as a front-month contract, May NG closed at $4.07 up 8 cents, or 1.9%. That marked the highest settlement value for a front-month contract since Aug. 11, 2011. We have seen institutional money come into the sector and a colder last few weeks have helped the natural-gas markets get to $4. The EIA will report its weekly data on natural-gas supplies on Thursday. Analysts forecast a decline of between 83 billion cubic feet and 87 billion. May natural gas is trading at 4.085 almost flat this morning.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data March 28, 2013 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Mar. 28

 

JPY

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

-2.3%

 

-1.2% 

 

-1.1% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Nationwide HPI (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.2% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

 

HUF

 

 

Hungarian Quarterly Unemployment Rate 

11.6%

 

11.6% 

 

11.2% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Unemployment Rate 

6.9%

 

6.9% 

 

6.9% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Unemployment Change 

13K

 

-4K 

 

-3K 

 

 

 

 

BRL

 

 

Brazilian Unemployment Rate 

5.6%

 

5.7% 

 

5.4% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

GDP (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.1% 

 

-0.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

357K

 

340K 

 

341K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.4%

 

0.5% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3050K

 

3043K 

 

3077K

   

 natural gas bns 0328

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Mar. 29 

07:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending (MoM) 

0.4% 

-0.8% 

 

12:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.1% 

0.1% 

 

12:30

USD

Personal Income (MoM) 

0.8% 

-3.6% 

 

12:30

USD

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.6% 

0.2% 

 

13:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

72.5 

71.8

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Apr 02 09:30 Belgium

Apr 03 09:10 Sweden

Apr 03 10:00 Norway

Apr 04 08:30 Spain

Apr 04 08:50 France

Apr 04 14:30 Sweden

Apr 04 15:00 US

Apr 05 15:30 Italy

 

 

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