Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis November 12, 2014 Forecast

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis November 12, 2014 Forecast
Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis November 12, 2014 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas tumbled 67 points to trade at 4.188 after traders pushed the commodity to a season high last week as winter weather blanketed the US. Evaluation show there is more than enough inventory to cover a severe winter but forecaster do not expect a winter as harsh as last year.  U.S. natural gas ended a notch higher on Friday to extend its rally to a ninth day, and traders expected more gains in the coming week if heating demand rises in accordance with forecasts for harshly cold weather.

Indications that a polar vortex could freeze the U.S. Midwest by next week gave market bulls the longest winning streak in natural gas in eight years.

Natural gas lost 3.6 percent on Monday, ending a nine-day streak of gains, as traders cashed in on a 26 percent price rise over the past two weeks despite forecasts that Arctic weather will blanket the U.S. Midwest over the next two weeks. The latest U.S. weather models showed continued colder-than-normal temperatures over the next two weeks, with 378 heating degree days, up from 354 on Friday. Normal HDDs for this time of year are 278, according to Thomson Reuters Analytics

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

Current Account

0.41T

0.03T

0.13T

 

 

  JPY

 

Current Account n.s.a.

0.963T

0.534T

0.287T

 

 

  GBP

 

BRC Retail Sales

0.0%

-0.5%

-2.1%

 

 

  AUD

 

House Price Index

1.5%

1.6%

1.9%

 

 

  AUD

 

NAB Bus. Confidence

4

 

5

 

 

  NZD

 

RBNZ Gov. Wheeler  

 

 

 

 

 Natural Gas(60 minutes)20141111101750

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Wednesday, November 12, 2014

 

  AUD

 

Wage Price Index (QoQ)

 

0.6%

0.6%

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Kocherlakota 

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Plosser

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

Average Earnings Index

 

0.9%

0.7%

 

 

  GBP

 

Claimant Count Change

 

-24.9K

-18.6K

 

 

  GBP

 

Unemployment Rate

 

5.9%

6.0%

 

 

  EUR

 

Industrial Production

 

1.0%

-1.8%

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE Gov. Carney  

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE Inflation Report 

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Kocherlakota 

 

 

 

 

 

  NZD

 

Business NZ PMI (Oct)

 

 

58.

 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Nov 11 07:00 Swiss Announces details of optional bond auction on Nov 12

Nov 11 10:00 Norway Bond auction

Nov 11 10:30 Belgium 3 & 12M T-bill auction (Feb & Nov 2015)

Nov 12 10:03 Sweden Sek 3.5bn 3.75% Aug 2017 Bond

Nov 12 10:10 Italy BOT auction

Nov 12 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn new Dec 2016 Schatz auction

Nov 12 10:30 Swiss Bond auction (for decision)

Nov 12 18:00 US Usd 24bn 10 year Note auction

Nov 13 10:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auctions

Nov 13 10:30 UK Gbp 3bn 2.75% Sep 2024 Gilt

Nov 13 18:00 US Usd 16bn 30 year Note auction

Nov 17 11:00 Belgium OLO Auction

Nov 18 09:30 Spain 6 & 12M T-bill auction

Nov 18 10:00 Slovakia Eur 0.15bn 2018 & Eur 0.15bn 2017 bonds

Nov 19 15:20 Sweden Announces details of bond auction on Nov 26

Nov 20 09:30 Spain Bono/Obligacion auction

Nov 20 10:03 Sweden I/L bond auction

Nov 20 10:30 UK Auctions 0.625% 2042 I/L Gilt

Nov 20 16:30 Italy Announces details of BTPei/CTZ auctions on Nov 25

Nov 21 16:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Nov 26

 

 

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