Natural Gas Monthly Fundamental Forecast July 2013

Natural Gas Monthly Fundamental Forecast July 2013
Natural Gas Monthly Fundamental Forecast July 2013
Outlook and Recommendation

Natural Gas  fell to end the month at 3.568 after trading at a high of 4.229 earlier this month. The weakness of natural gas in recent weeks is also reflected in the sharp fall of United States Natural Gas. During the month, NG declined by 10.6%. This ETF follows the price of short term natural gas futures that are traded in NYMEX. As of June 27th, the fund’s net assets reached $838 million. Keep in mind the ETF isn’t an exact match with the price of natural gas and it has a small gap from the change in natural gas price that currently stands at 0.32%. To analyze what is next for natural gas price, let’s examine the recent developments in natural gas demand, supply and storage.

Highest: 4.229

Lowest: 3.527

Difference: 0.701

Average: 3.840

Change %: -14.39

What it all comes down to is residential demand with the weather forecast relatively modest leaves no support for natural gas prices. Even though the DOA has approved future projects that will increase exports of natural gas, it is having little effect on current prices as the new export projects will be several years in the future.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

NATURAL GAS 629M

WEEKLY DATA

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GMT                                   Event                                                                                Consensus       Previous  

MONDAY, JUL 01

09:00     EMU      EUR       Consumer Price Index – Core                                                     1.2%                    

09:00     EMU      EUR       Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jun)                               1.5%      1.4%                    

THURSDAY, JUL 04

11:00     UK          GBP        BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jul 4)                                             0.5%      0.5%                    

11:00     UK          GBP        BoE Asset Purchase Facility (Jul)                                                £375B    £375B                  

11:45     EMU      EUR       ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jul 4)                                             0.5%      0.5%                    

12:30     EMU      EUR       ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference                                                                                 

FRIDAY, JUL 05

12:30     US          USD       Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun)                                                                170K      175K                    

12:30     US          USD       Unemployment Rate (Jun)                                                          7.5%      7.6%                    

WEDNESDAY, JUL 10

06:00     DE          EUR       Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jun)                                              1.5%                    

06:00     DE          EUR       Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices                                                   1.6%                    

18:00     US          USD       FOMC Minutes                                                                             

FRIDAY, JUL 12

07:30     CH          CHF        SNB Interest Rate Decision                                                                       0%                        

SATURDAY, JUL 13

12:30     US          USD       Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)                                                             0.6%                    

TUESDAY, JUL 16

08:30     UK          GBP        Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jun)                                              2.7%                    

08:30     UK          GBP        Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jun)                                                   2.2%                    

09:00     EMU      EUR       Consumer Price Index – Core (YoY) (Jun)                                                1.2%                    

09:00     EMU      EUR       Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jun)                                              1.4%                    

12:30     US          USD       Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jun)                                              1.4%                    

12:30     US          USD       Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy                                                1.7%                    

WEDNESDAY, JUL 17

08:30     UK          GBP        Bank of England Minutes                                                                                         

08:30     UK          GBP        Claimant Count Change (Jun)                                                                    -8.6K                    

THURSDAY, JUL 25

08:30     UK          GBP        Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q2)                                                        0.3%                    

08:30     UK          GBP        Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q2)                                                         0.3%                    

WEDNESDAY, JUL 31

07:55     DE          EUR       Unemployment Change (Jul)                                                                     -12K                     

07:55     DE          EUR       Unemployment Rate s.a. (Jul)                                                                   6.8%                    

12:30     US          USD       Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q2)                                2.4%                    

18:00     US          USD       Fed Interest Rate Decision                                                                        0.25%                  

18:00     US          USD       Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement and press conference                                  

 

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