Natural gas markets rallied significantly during the trading session on Friday, as we have seen the $2.60 level offer a certain amount of support. Ultimately, the market closing at the top part of the candlestick also shows that there is real follow-through, as we had recently seen so much significant selling. After all, a lot of this was a reaction to short-term weather forecasts coming out the United States predicting warmer weather, but this is a short-term action, not something that you can follow-through with for a longer-term move. After all, temperatures during this time year tend to fall, that drives of demand. Because of this, I think that buyers will step in and try to pick up value.
NATGAS Video 23.11.20
Looking at the chart, the $2.81 level features the 50 day EMA, so breaking above that allows for an attempt to fill the gap from earlier this week. That means that we could go looking towards the $2.95 level, possibly the $3.00 level after that. I still believe that we are in a “buy on the dips” type of market, but the weather reports will of course continue to throw the market around. Natural gas has this nasty habit of being very erratic based upon the weekly weather report, so therefore it is very difficult to hang onto longer-term positions, especially this time of year.
That being said though, I still believe that we eventually go higher as we are still only trading the January contract in the futures market. Selling is not a thought, and even if we did break down, I would be especially interested in the $2.40 level where the 200 day EMA sits.
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