Natural gas futures are trading lower on Tuesday after failing to follow-through to the upside following Thursday’s technical closing price reversal bottom and Friday’s subsequent confirmation of the potentially bullish chart pattern.
Technically, the early price action suggests the buying isn’t strong enough at this time to overtake a wall of resistance at $2.609 to $2.619. Even if this zone is overcome, another resistance area comes in at $2.632 to $2.641.
At 11:49 GMT, July natural gas is trading $2.579, down $0.032 or -1.23%.
There are two ways to overcome these zones, with a slow grind supported by steady buying in anticipation of the emergence of hot weather, or with a gap or spike to the upside in reaction to a sudden shift in the weather forecasts. Weak speculative buying just won’t cut it.
Fundamentally, the price action suggests the lack of confidence in the weather forecasts at this time. Furthermore, some traders are looking at the one-week forecast and others are looking two-weeks out. This usually causes a lack of conviction to the long side.
On the downside, support is $2.554, $2.550 and $2.534.
Short-Term Weather Outlook
According to NatGasWeather for May 27 to June 3, “Weather systems with rain, snow and thunderstorms will continue across the West and Plains with highs of 50s to 70s. Texas to the Mid-Atlantic Coast will be very warm to hot with highs of 80s & 90s as strong high pressure dominates, hottest across the Southeast with 95-100F. Mostly warm conditions continue from Chicago to NYC with highs of 70s and 80s, although with showers across the Upper Midwest. Hot high pressure over the Southeast will weaken late week with easing heat, aided by weather systems tracking across the northern US. Overall, demand will be moderate through Thursday due to hot conditions over the southern US, then low as coverage and intensity of 90s eases.”
The short-term weather forecast is not so bullish so gains are likely to be limited early in the session. Conditions could change later in the day with the release of updated 11 to 15 day forecasts. Technically, unless there is a major surprise in the forecasts, buyers are going to have a hard time breaching resistance. Traders may probe the downside once again to see how willing last week’s buyers are willing to defend the low at $2.554.