Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Fall Following Inventory Report

Natural gas prices declined on Thursday after rallying for 3-session following a larger than expected build in natural gas inventories. Warmer than normal weather is expected to cover most of the United States for the next 6-10 and 8-14 days according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. Currently, there are no tropical cyclones expected to form in the Atlantic for the next 48-hours, according to NOAA. Natural gas production was flat week over week.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices declined following a 3-day winning streak. Support is seen at the 50-day moving average at 2.78. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 2.97. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 22, up from 16, which could foreshadow a correction. Medium-term momentum is negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing in the red with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices.

Inventories Rise More than Expected

Natural gas in storage was 2,215 Bcf as of Friday, May 21, 2021, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 115 Bcf from the previous week. Expectations were for a 90 Bcf build according to survey provider Estimize. Stocks were 381 Bcf less than last year at this time and 63 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,278 Bcf. At 2,215 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.