Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Remain Rangebound and Decline Slightly

Natural gas prices continued to trading in a tight range. The weather is expected to be warmer than normal over the next two weeks but not warm enough that it will impact cooling demand. LNG exports were larger than expected in the latest week.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices moved lower on Monday and continue to trade in a tight range. Prices have slipped through support near the 10-day moving average at 2.94. Target resistance is seen near the February highs at 3.06. Short-term resistance is seen near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 2.97.. The 10-day moving average crossed above the 50-day moving average, which means that a medium-term uptrend is now in place. Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. Medium-term momentum is positive but decelerating as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in positive territory with a sliding trajectory which points to consolidation.

LNG Exports Rise

U.S. LNG exports increase week over week. Twenty two LNG vessels with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 84 Bcf departed the United States between April 29 and May 5, 2021, according to shipping data provided by the EIA.