Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Slip Following Inventory Report

Natural gas prices eased slightly on Thursday following the Energy Department’s inventory report. The weather is expected to remain warmer than normal for the next two weeks according to a forecast from the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. Underground natural gas working storage capacity in the Lower 48 states has remained relatively flat since 2012.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices moved lower easing for the 2nd consecutive trading session but holding above support near the 10-day moving average at 3.03. Additional support is seen near the 50-day moving average at 2.92. Short-term momentum is flat as the fast stochastic moves sideways where the stochastic and the signal line are at the same level. Medium-term momentum is also flat as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints near the zero index line with a flat trajectory which points to consolidation.

Inventories Rise Less than Expected

Natural gas in storage was 2,313 Bcf as of Friday, May 28, 2021, according to the EIAs. This represents a net increase of 98 Bcf from the previous week. Expectations were for a 110 Bcf build according to survey provider Estimize. Stocks were 386 Bcf less than last year at this time and 61 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,374 Bcf. At 2,313 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.