Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Slip on Inventories Gains

Natural gas prices moved lower in the wake of Thursday’s inventory report from the Department of Energy. According to a National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) report, the weather is expected to remain warmer than normal for the next 2-weeks, on the East and West Coast with cooler than normal weather in the South.  There is one tropical storm that has a 10% chance of turning into tropical cyclones according to a NOAA forecast in the next 48-hours.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices eased Thursday remained below resistance, near the 10-day moving average at 3.67. Additional resistance is seen near the July highs, near 3.82. Support is seen near the July lows at 3.52. Prices are forming a bull flag continuation pattern which is a pause that refreshes higher. Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. Medium-term momentum is neutral and turning negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing near the zero-index and is poised to cross below reflecting accelerating negative momentum.

Inventories Rose More than expected

Natural gas in storage was 2,629 Bcf as of Friday, July 9, 2021, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 55 Bcf from the previous week. Expectations were for a 48 Bcf build according to survey provider Estimize. Stocks were 543 Bcf less than last year at this time and 189 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,818 Bcf. At 2,629 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.