Natural Gas

Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Whipsaw as a Storm Enters the Caribbean

Natural gas prices whipsawed on Monday, making a lower low before rebounding sharply to close up on the trading session. Prices remain buoyed as the weather is expected to be much colder than normal through the plains and the mid-west while warmer than normal throughout most of the East coast of the United States. There is one disturbance moving through the Caribbean that has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48-hours. Tropical storm Epsilon is expected to move toward the east coast of the US but is not likely to impact any natural gas infrastructure. Hedge funds added to long positions in futures and options according to the latest commitment of traders report.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices whipsawed and close higher on the session. Prices recaptured resistance which is now short-term support near the 50-day moving average at 2.76. Additional support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 2.72. Resistance is seen near the October highs at 2.95. The 10-day moving average is fast approaching the 50-day moving average and a crossover appears imminent. This would show that a medium-term uptrend is in place. Medium-term momentum is positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing in positive territory with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices.

Hedge Funds add to Long Positions in Futures and Options

Managed money added to long positions and reduced short position in futures and options according to the latest commitment of traders report released for the date ending October 13, 2020. Managed money added 9K contracts to long position in futures and options while reducing short positions by 3K contracts. Hedge funds that are long futures and options outnumber short position in futures and options by 2.5 to one.