Natural gas markets initially tried to rally during the week but failed to hold above the $2.20 level. By doing so, the market looks likely to continue to go lower, as a break down below the bottom of this candlestick would send this market down to much lower levels. We are pressing the absolute lows right now, and the fact that we are closing at the bottom of the candle stick is of course a very negative sign.
NATGAS Video 29.07.19
Beyond that, market participants obviously will be looking at the fundamental situation where the oversupply of natural gas continues to show itself on the chart. Quite frankly, we are nowhere near burning through natural gas, so we should continue to go lower. Beyond that, the seasonality dictates that this market is very unlikely to rally anytime soon. Ultimately, this is a market that won’t be showing signs of strength until we get to the cold months, as demand will normally cause some type of cyclical bounce, and quite violently so. In the meantime though, I think that the market is hell-bent on testing the $2.00 level underneath, as it is a large, round, psychologically important figure.
Even if we do break the top of the candle stick for the weekly chart, I think it only gives us a move towards the $2.50 level before the sellers return and start pummeling natural gas again. Beyond that, we also have to worry about global demand due to a slowing down in the industry.
Please let us know what you think in the comments below