NZD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Trader Reaction to .6483 Sets the Tone on Thursday

The growth-sensitive New Zealand Dollar is trading higher early Thursday as the safe-haven U.S. Dollar remains on the defensive, following yesterday’s upbeat U.S. and European economic data, although gains are being limited coronavirus worries and general uncertainty ahead of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report.

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to show an increase of 3 million jobs last month. But estimates vary widely and the data comes as concerns grow about whether the U.S. economy can sustain its recovery as coronavirus infections surge and some states reimpose limits on business and personal activity.

At 06:48 GMT, the NZD/USD is trading .6499, up 0.0020 or +0.31%.

A better-than-expected labor market report should drive up demand for the higher risk currency, while dampening the safe-have appeal of the U.S. Dollar.

Traders should note that the price action could be limited due to Friday’s U.S. bank holiday. This means we may not see the true reaction to the report until trading resumes next week.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .6533 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a trade through .6385, but we may not see any sharp downward movement until the main bottoms at .6383 and .6381 are taken out with strong volume.

The short-term range is .6585 to .6381. Its 50% level or pivot at .6483 is the key level to watch today.

The main range is .5921 to .6585. If the main trend changes to down then its retracement zone at .6253 to .6175 will become the primary downside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at .6499, the direction of the NZD/USD the rest of the session on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at .6483.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6483 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a rally into .6533.

Taking out .6533 could trigger a surge into the main top at .6585. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next major targets .6758 to .6791.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6483 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the three main bottoms at .6385, .6383 and .6381. Taking out .6381 with conviction could trigger an acceleration into .6253 to .6175 over the near-term.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Published by

James Hyerczyk

James A. Hyerczyk has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann.