NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis – Forecast for the week of September 19, 2016

The NZD/USD is a strong buy in this new week as it is expected to recover the losses in the new week after the BoJ decision and the FOMC meeting. The pair closed the week at 0.7267 down 0.83% for the week. The RBNZ will meet later this week but no changes are expected. The ANZ consumer confidence index rose four percentage points to 121 in August from July, the strongest level since January.

ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie said the improvement was no surprise given the strength in house prices and pick-up in the dairy sector.

“Consumers are feeling more confident about the future as well as remaining upbeat about the right here and now.”

A net 11 percent of respondents said they were better off than this time last year and a net 31 percent said they expected to be better off in the next 12 months, with expectations for house price growth also rising.

Mr Bagrie said the high New Zealand dollar was also keeping a lid on import prices, which was making consumers more willing to buy big-ticket items such as appliances and cars.

“Our confidence composite gauge – combining business and consumer sentiment – continues to flag solid-to-strong GDP (gross domestic product) growth over coming months. Four percent real GDP growth is in prospect,” he said.

Official data showed the economy grew 3.6 percent in the year to June, the strongest since the end of 2014.

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This Week’s Economic Events That You Should Be Monitoring:

Date Country Name Volatility Previous
9/20/2016 AUD RBA Meeting’s Minutes 3
9/20/2016 CAD BoC Governor Poloz 3
9/21/2016 AUD Mid-Year Economic Outlook 3
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 3 -0.1
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement 3
9/21/2016 JPY BoJ Press Conference 3
9/21/2016 USD FOMC Economic Projections 3
9/21/2016 USD Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement 3
9/21/2016 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 3 0.5
9/21/2016 USD FOMC Press conference 3
9/21/2016 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 3 2
9/22/2016 EUR ECB President Draghi’s Speech 3
9/23/2016 AUD RBA’s Governor Lowe Speech 3

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time           Country               Auction

Sep 19 11:00 Belgium Eur 2.8-3.5bn 4.5% Mar 2026,

Sep 20 11:30 UK Gbp 2.5bn 1.5% Jul 2047 Gilt

Sep 21 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 21 11:03 Sweden Sek 2bn 4.25% Feb 2019 & Sek 1.5bn 1.5% Nov 2023 bonds

Sep 21 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Sep 22 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

Sep 22 19:00 US Usd 11bn 0.125% Jul 2026 TIP

Sep 26 11:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn Sep 2017 Bubill

Sep 26 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Sep 28

Sep 27 11:00 Netherlands Eur 0.75-1.25bn 4% Jan 2037 DSL

Sep 27 11:10 Italy Holds zero coupon/BTP€i auction

Sep 28 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Sep 28 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Sep 2018 Schatz

Sep 29 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction