NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis June 11-15, 2012, Forecast

Introduction: The recent strength of the kiwi, a currency sometimes overlooked by traders, made its moves much more predictable. This applies to support and resistance lines alike. This is a very safe pair to trade, not a great deal of volatility but predictability.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:


The NZD/USD  ended the week on a strong note at 0.7704 after a difficult week.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Jun 08, 2012

0.7704

0.7682

0.7721

0.7619

0.29%

Jun 07, 2012

0.7682

0.7703

0.7753

0.7665

-0.27%

Jun 06, 2012

0.7703

0.7588

0.7710

0.7584

1.50%

Jun 05, 2012

0.7589

0.7590

0.7604

0.7521

-0.03%

Jun 04, 2012

0.7591

0.7510

0.7595

0.7502

1.08%

 The surprise lending rate reduction by the PBoC and the hardcore stance of the ECB and the Feds, gave mixed signals to the Asian markets.

The New Zealand dollar has fallen after the Federal Reserve failed to signal further US economic stimulus, damping kiwi sentiment lifted by China’s unexpected benchmark lending rate cut.

It rose as high as 77.52 US cents overnight, the highest since May 11 on speculation the Chinese rate cut will underpin the world’s fastest-growing major economy.

Fed chairman Ben Bernanke helped erase the kiwi’s advances after signaling the world’s largest economy remains at risk from Europe’s debt crisis, but didn’t call for consideration of additional stimulus.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical

Highest: 0.8816 USD on Jul 31, 2011.

Average: 0.7543 USD over this period.

Lowest: 0.6619 USD on Jun 07, 2010.

Major Economic Events for the week of June 4 – 8 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date

Currency

 Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Jun 5

AUD

Cash Rate

3.50%

3.50%

3.75%

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

53.7

53.6

53.5

AUD

GDP q/q

1.3%

0.5%

0.6%

Jun 6

AUD

Employment Change

38.9K

-2.2K

7.0K

AUD

Unemployment Rate

5.1%

5.1%

5.0%

Jun 7

USD

Unemployment Claims

377K

381K

389K

JPY

Current Account

0.29T

0.62T

0.79T

AUD

Trade Balance

-0.20B

-0.92B

-1.28B

Jun 8

USD

Trade Balance

-50.1B

-49.4B

-52.6B

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY and NZD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Forecast

Previous

Jun 11

23:50

JPY

Tertiary Industry Activity m/m

 

-0.6%

Jun 12

1:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence

 

4

12th-14th

NZD

REINZ HPI m/m

 

-0.3%

23:50

JPY

Core Machinery Orders m/m

 

-2.8%

Jun 13

0:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Sentiment

 

0.8%

21:00

NZD

Official Cash Rate

2.50%

2.50%

21:00

NZD

RBNZ Press Conference

   

 

21:00

NZD

RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement

 

 

 

Jun 14

1:00

AUD

MI Inflation Expectations

 

3.1%

 

 

 

 

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