June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are posting a strong comeback shortly before the cash market opening on Friday amid reports that ceasefire talks could be gaining traction between Russia and Ukraine.
Amid a steep overnight plunge, Reuters sent a brief report quoting Russian President Vladimir Putin saying that “certain positive shifts” have occurred in the talks. The news fueled a massive short-covering rally, sending the technology-weighted index within striking distance of yesterday’s close.
The index is trying to recover from a sell-off on Thursday that was triggered by a report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that showed the consumer price index rose 7.9% in February, even more than expected and the highest level since January 1982.
On Friday at 15:00 GMT, investors will get the opportunity to react to the preliminary reading for the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey. It is expected to nudge higher to a reading of 62 from 61.7 in February.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trying to shift higher following the formation of a potentially bearish closing price reversal bottom on Wednesday.
A trade through 13031.00 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through 16700.00.
The minor trend is also down. A trade through 14389.00 will change the minor trend to up. This will confirm the shift in momentum.
The minor range is 13031.00 to 14389.00. The index is currently trading on the strong side of its pivot at 13710.00, making it support.
The second minor range is 15261.25 to 13031.00. Its 50% level at 14146.25 is the next potential upside target.
The short-term range is 16700.00 to 13031.00. If the minor trend changes to up then look for the rally to extend into its retracement zone at 14865.50 to 15298.50.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
The direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 13710.00.
A sustained move over 13710.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. If the move creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into 14146.25, followed by the minor top at 14389.00.
Taking out 14389.00 will change the minor trend to up and shift momentum to the upside. This could generate the upside momentum needed to challenge the short-term 50% level at 14865.50.
A sustained move under 13710.00 will signal the presence of sellers. If this brings in enough sellers then look for the move to possibly extend into 13031.00, followed by 12957.25. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with 12200.00 the next major target.