The stock market has experienced tremendous volatility since late November 2021 and the 4 major indices such as S&P 500 (ES), Dow Jones (YM), Nasdaq 100 (NQ) and Russell 2000 (RTY) has corrected more than 10% from the peak to the trough in February 2022. Since then, the rally in March 2022 is considered as a Wyckoff change of character, which changed the short-term market environment from downtrend to uptrend.
Due to the high volatility (both to the downside and to the upside) as shown up in the market, picking the right sectors followed by buying the outperforming stocks are the keys to be profitable in stock trading.
Smart money has rotated out from the previous leaderships and progressively into different sectors as a result of the on-going sector rotation. Let’s start with a top-down approach to determine the outperforming sectors below.
Top 4 Outperforming Sectors – XLE, XLP, XLU, XLV
There are two elements to focus on in order to determine the outperforming sectors when analyzing the sector charts using the ETFs, which are the relative strength and the price structure. Refer to the chart of XLE (Energy), XLP (Consumer Staples), XLU (Utilities) and XLV (Health Care) below:
XLE has been in a clear uptrend with higher high and higher low since January 2022 while the relative strength (below the chart and annotated in orange) trending up. S&P 500 is used as a benchmark in the relative strength indicator. Rising in the relative strength means XLE outperforms S&P 500 since January 2022.
XLP, XLU and XLV shows outperformance in the relative strength index since December 2021 while their price just hit a higher high recently.
These 4 sectors – energy, consumer staples, utilities and health care show strong price action with their prices break the previous high while outperforming S&P 500.
Sectors Comparison – XLB, XLRE, XLI, XLF
Next let’s compare XLB (Materials), XLRE (Real Estate), XLI (Industrial) and XLF (Financial) below.
The top 2 charts, XLB and XLRE showed outperformance in the relative strength pane since November and December 2021 yet their prices still did not break above the previous swing high. These 2 sectors outperform S&P 500 yet they are not the strongest because of the price structure, which might take more time to unfold.
XLI and XLF show similar relative strength comparing to S&P 500 while their price structures form lower low and lower high, which is a sign of weakness.
Lagging Sectors – XLK, XLY, XLC
The last 3 sectors, XLK (Technology), XLY (Consumer Discretionary), XLC (Communication Services) are the lagging sectors, as shown below.
Both their price structures and the relative strength trend down with lower low and lower high. These 3 sectors are clearly not in favored by the smart money since December 2021.
It is essential to focus on the outperforming sectors like XLE (Energy), XLP (Consumer Staples), XLU (Utilities), XLV (Health Care), XLB (Materials) and XLRE (Real Estate) and to dive into the outperforming industry groups within the sectors before picking the stocks showing Wyckoff accumulation pattern for trend trading.
Stock Market Outlook Video Using Wyckoff Method
Let’s find out where the prices of S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones and Russell 2000 likely to go to. Watch the video below to determine how to use Wyckoff method to derive a directional bias with the volume and the price action alone. Visit TradePrecise.com to get more stock market insights in email for free.