Silver Fundamental Analysis July 17, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver is trading at 27.32, as precious metals traded little changed today, retaining gains from the previous session clocked up after China’s growth data came in on target and eased worries about worsening economic conditions, feeding risk appetite and boosting the euro.

Industrial metals edged down today after hitting a one-week high in the prior session as surging agricultural futures drew some buying power away from base metals, but expectations of further stimulus from China helped put a floor under prices.

Markets are also expecting the official release of the IMF global growth forecast which is weighing on industrial metals as the IMF is expected to adjust the 2012 growth rate downwards.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data Releases for Monday, July 16, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jul. 16

 

GBP

 

 

 

Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) 

-1.7%

 

 

 

1.0% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.4%

 

2.4% 

 

2.4% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.6%

 

1.6% 

 

1.6% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.4%

 

0.1% 

 

-0.4% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Foreign Securities Purchases 

26.11B

 

13.50B 

 

10.16B 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.5%

 

0.2% 

 

-0.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

7.4

 

4.0 

 

2.3 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Jul 17

8:30

GBP

CPI y/y

2.8%

9:00

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

-16.9

9:15

ALL

G7 Meetings

 

12:30

USD

CPI m/m

-0.3%

13:00

USD

TIC Long-Term Purchases

25.6B

13:15

USD

Industrial Production m/m

-0.1%

Jul 18

8:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change

8.1K

8:30

GBP

Unemployment Rate

8.2%

9:00

CHF

ZEW Economic Expectations

-43.4

12:30

USD

Building Permits

0.78M

12:30

USD

Housing Starts

0.71M

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-4.7M

Jul 19

6:00

CHF

Trade Balance

2.48B

8:00

EUR

Current Account

4.6B

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

1.4%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

14:00

USD

Existing Home Sales

4.55M

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

-16.6

Jul 20

6:00

EUR

German PPI m/m

-0.3%

8:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing

15.6B

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country  Auction

Jul 17  08:30  Spain    Eur 2.5-3.5bn Jul 2013 (12M) & Dec 2013 (18M) T-bills

Jul 17  09:10  Greece  Eur 1.25bn Oct 2012 (3M) T-bills

Jul 17  09:30  Belg     Up to Eur 3.0bn Oct 2012 (3M) & Jul 2013 (12M) T-bills

Jul 17  10:00  EFSF    Up to Eur 1.5bn Jan 2013 (6M) T-bills

Jul 18  09:30  Ger       Eur 5.0bn 0.00% Jun 2014 Schatz

Jul 18  09:30  Port      Eur 1.75-2.0bn new Jan 2013 (6M) & new Jul 2013 (12M)

Jul 19  00:30  Japan    Auctions 5Y JGBs

Jul 19  08:30  Spain    Eur 2.0-3.0bn 3.3% Oct 2014 Bono, 5.5% Jul 2017 &

Jul 19  08:50  France  Eur 8.0-9.0bn 2.5% Jan 2015, 2.5% Jul 2016 & new 1.0%

Jul 19  09:30  UK       GBP 1.75bn 3.75% Jul 2052 Gilt

Jul 19  09:50  France  Eur 1.0-1.5bn 1.3% Jul 2019 OATi,

Jul 19  17:00  US        USD 15.0bn 10Y Tips

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