The S&P 500 has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Thursday but at this point we might be a little overextended. If we can break to a fresh, new high, the market is likely to continue to reach towards the 4000 target which is my longer-term goal, based upon the previous consolidation area underneath between the 3200 level on the bottom and the 3600 level on the top. The 400 point region extrapolates to a move towards the 4000 handle, which is a large, round, psychologically significant figure.
S&P 500 Video 15.01.21
To the downside, I believe that the previous uptrend line that I have marked on the chart as well as the 50 day EMA both could offer a bit of a “floor the market”, and therefore I think that a lot of people will be looking to get involved if that happens. Nonetheless, I do not even think we get down there. That is essentially my “value play” if we get that opportunity. Yields in the United States have been rising so that is cause a little bit of a drag in this market, but ultimately, I think that the promise of massive amounts of stimulus will continue to push this thing higher.
After all, over the last 13 years has been about stimulus, and that is exactly what they will be getting on Wall Street. The market currently does not even look like something that I could short, and quite frankly do not even have a scenario where I would be comfortable doing so. If we do break down, I simply will look to buy it at lower levels.
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