S&P 500 Weekly Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 has fallen a bit during the trading week to break down through the 200-Week EMA. Ultimately, this is a market that made a fresh, new low, that of course is a very negative turn of events as well. If we break down below the candlestick, then it’s likely that we could go to the 3500 level. The 3500 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that will attract a lot of attention.
At this juncture, if we can break above the top of the candlestick for the week, it’s likely that the market could go looking to the 4000 level. The 4000 level of course is an area that would cause a significant amount of headline noise, and of course selling pressure. Ultimately, I think that any signs of exhaustion should get sold into as we continue to see a lot of negativity in general. That being said, the market has gotten a bit overdone, so I do think that it is a situation where we have more of a “fade the rally” type of attitude.
Interest rates in the United States continue to climb long term, therefore I think it’s a situation where we will eventually have to make a bigger decision, but I do think that the bigger decision is to go lower. After all, there’s just too much ugliness out there to think that markets can take off to the upside for no apparent reason. Unless the Federal Reserve actually pivots, I just don’t see what would turn things around. That being said, I think this is a scenario where you are looking for an opportunity to short from higher levels.
S&P 500 Weekly Forecast Video for 03.10.22
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