Technical Update For USD/CAD, EUR/CAD, AUD/CAD & CAD/CHF: 06.09.2017


Ever since the USDCAD dropped below 1.2440 mark, it never went up and has been trading in the small range between the 1.2360 and the 1.2425. However, today’s monetary policy announcement by the Bank of Canada might offer noticeable moves of the pair. Considering strong Canadian fundamentals, chances of either a rate-hike or a hint for October rate-lift is highly anticipated, which in-turn could drag the pair below the 1.2360 support and make it revisit the recent low around 1.2330. In case of the quote’s sustained downturn beneath 1.2330, the 1.2300 and the 1.2250 horizontal-lines might entertain sellers ahead of pleasing them with 1.2200 support-mark. Meanwhile, disappointment from the central bank may quickly trigger the pair’s advances towards 1.2425 and the 1.2450 resistances, break of which could escalate its recovery in direction to 1.2500 and the 1.2530. During the course of trading beyond 1.2530, the 1.2600 might act as an intermediate halt prior to fueling prices to confront the 1.2625 and the 1.2670 TL resistances.



Following its U-turn from 1.4685-80 horizontal-line, the EURCAD is now aiming to challenge the 1.4800 – 1.4805 resistance-area, which if cleared could further propel the pair to 1.4850 and the 1.4875 numbers to north. Should buyers refrain to respect the 1.4875 cap, the 1.4940 and the 1.5000 are likely land-marks that they can target. Alternatively, 1.4750 and the 1.4700 could become nearby supports that the pair might avail before meeting the 1.4685-80 line. However, break of 1.4680 may activate the pair’s southward trajectory with the 1.4660, the 1.4615 and the 1.4585 being expected consecutive supports.



With the AUDCAD’s sincere observance to four-month old descending trend-line, the pair seems sellers’ favorite with 0.9850 be adjacent rest ahead of looking at an upward slanting TL support of 0.9825. If the pair closes below 0.9825, the 0.9770-65 horizontal-region could become its next destination, which if broke might further fetch the quote to 0.9720 and the 0.9655 supports. On the upside, the 0.9930 and the 0.9960 are likely immediate resistances that the pair may aim before confronting with the 0.9990 resistance-line that is close to 100-day SMA level of 1.0020. Moreover, Bulls’ quest beyond 1.0020 on a day’s close can make them see the 1.0050, the 1.0070 and the 1.0110 as upcoming figures.



While 0.7790–0.7800 confined the CADCHF’s upside during last-week, the pair recently broke an immediate ascending trend-line and is indicating 0.7645 test. Should the BoC’s disappointment and/or safe-haven demands for CHF fetch prices below 0.7645, the 0.7600 and another TL support of 0.7580 gain importance, break of which could strengthen Bears to demand 0.7525 and the 0.7500 as levels. If at all BoC’s hawkish message defies CHF’s strength, the pair can easily reclaim the 0.7750 and the 0.7770 resistances prior to targeting 0.7790 – 0.7800 break. Given the buyers’ capacity to surpass 0.7800, chances of witnessing the pair’s rally towards 61.8% FE level of 0.7860 and then to the 0.7900 can’t be denied.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal