US Dollar Index

U.S. Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 91.100, Weakens Under 90.620

The U.S. Dollar is trading nearly flat against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday in a mostly lackluster trade. The greenback is hovering slightly above a multi-week low reached the previous session, ahead of the start of a two-day Federal Reserve policy meeting.

Perhaps providing some support are firmer U.S. Treasury yields. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note advanced 11 basis points to 1.581% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rose 11 basis points to 2.255%.

At 12:59 GMT, June U.S. Dollar Index futures are trading 90.850, up 0.070 or +0.08%.

Federal Reserve policymakers are not expected to announce any changes to its policy but investors will be keeping a close eye on comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, in a press conference following the meeting on Wednesday afternoon.

The Fed will remain on hold for the rest of this year despite an increasing belief on Wall Street that policymakers should throttle back the stimulus they’re providing to the U.S. economy, according to the latest CNBC Fed Survey.

Daily June U.S. Dollar Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 90.655 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through 93.470. This is highly unlikely, however.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 91.425 will change the minor trend to up. This will shift momentum to the upside.

The nearest resistance is a Fibonacci level at 91.100, followed by a 50% level at 91.555.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June U.S. Dollar Index is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at 91.100.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 91.100 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first downside target is a minor pivot at 90.850, followed by the minor bottom at 90.655.

A trade through the next main bottom from March 3 at 90.620 will reaffirm the downtrend and could trigger an acceleration into the February 25 main bottom at 89.655.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 91.100 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the minor top at 91.425.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Published by

James Hyerczyk

James A. Hyerczyk has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann.