U.S. Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – Weakens Under 92.510, Strengthens Over 92.815

U.S. Dollar Index futures are edging lower on Thursday, mirroring the movement in Treasury yields that are falling from recent peaks despite signs of a robust U.S. economic recovery.

Traders are showing a muted response to Wednesday’s Fed minutes in which policymakers indicated at their March meeting that easy policy will stay in place until it produces stronger employment and inflation, and won’t be adjusted based merely on forecasts.

At 07:58 GMT, June U.S. Dollar Index futures are trading 92.315, down 0.157 or -0.17%.

Later today at 12:30 GMT, investors will get the opportunity to react to the latest report on weekly initial unemployment claims. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect first-time claims to total 694,000 during the week-ended April 3.

Daily June U.S. Dollar Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of the closing price reversal top on March 31.

The main trend will change to down on a move through 91.290, while a trade through 93.470 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The minor trend is down. This is controlling the momentum. The minor trend will change to up on a move through 93.130, but taking out yesterday’s minor reversal bottom at 92.155 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger.

The main range is 94.587 to 89.155. The index is currently testing its retracement zone at 92.510 to 91.870. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the index.

The short-term range is 89.655 to 93.470. Its retracement zone at 91.555 to 91.100 is the primary downside target and support.

The new minor range is 93.470 to 92.155. Its 50% level at 92.815 is potential resistance.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June U.S. Dollar Index on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main Fibonacci level at 92.510.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 92.510 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first downside target is 92.155. Taking out this level could lead to a labored break with potential downside targets coming in at 91.870, 91.555 and 91.100.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 92.510 will signal the return of buyers. This could trigger a quick rally into the pivot at 92.815, followed by the minor top at 93.130.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Published by

James Hyerczyk

James A. Hyerczyk has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann.