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USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Strong SMA Conflux Preventing the Downside

Since last three consecutive trading sessions, the Loonie pair was making lower highs, hinting slowing down of the bulls. Anyhow, on the backing of reliable bullish technical indicators, the pair might show resilient moves in the upcoming sessions. On moving upside, the pair might target the immediate resistance targets stemmed near 1.3320, 1.3327, and 1.3338 levels.

Crude prices continued to slip on Monday over recession fears developed out of the intensified trade tensions. Last week, China had announced some tariffs over the US goods showing strong retaliation, marking another dent on global growth.

Significant Economic Events

US Non-Defense July Capital Goods Orders that excludes Aircraft remains at the center stage for Monday. Notably, the market expects this highly significant Goods Orders data to report 0.0% over 1.5% forecasts. Quite noticeably, July Durable Goods Orders and the one that excludes Transportation would also come up in the same timeframe. From an overall glance, the market appears to stay slight bearish over the July Capital & Durable Goods Orders data releases. Along with the Goods Orders data, the traders would also eye the Chicago July Fed National Activity Index.

At around 14:30 GMT, the Dallas Fed August Manufacturing Business Index will come out. This index had recorded -6.3 points last time.

Technical Analysis

1-Month Chart

The Loonie pair appeared to remain clinched near 1.35 level since last year, maintaining a consolidated performance.

USDCAD 1 Month 26 August 2019
USDCAD 1 Month 26 August 2019

Earlier, the Stochastic technical indicator had shown over-bought conditions. And, the moving averages of the indicator was heading south since last few months, signaling a weakness generation in the pair’s daily movements. Anyhow, the 50-day near-term SMA seemed to move along with the pair, preventing the downside. If the bears take further control and breaches below the 50-day SMA, then that would immediately activate the 100-day and 200-day SMA confluence.

1-Week Chart

On the weekly chart, the USD/CAD appears to have already broken below a strong slanting ascending support line on June 17.

USDCAD 1 Month 26 August 2019
USDCAD 1 Month 26 August 2019

Somehow, the pair now seems to advance towards the upper side with below-lying Parabolic SAR. Meantime, the MACD line was making a bullish crossover with the signal line with the gradual formation of north-facing green histograms. Nevertheless, the near-term bulls might soon take control over the pair, driving it upwards.

1-Day Chart

After a few days of struggle, the USD/CAD pair has crossed above the overhead red Ichimoku Clouds.

USDCAD 1 Day 26 August 2019
USDCAD 1 Day 26 August 2019

Along with that, the base line and the conversion line stood below the pair, strengthening the bulls. Nonetheless, the Parabolic SAR that was hovering below the pair confirms a bullish perspective for the upcoming sessions. Interim, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continued to stay near 60 levels, showcasing buyer dominance.