USD/CAD Daily Price Forecast – The Loonie Bulls Roar Underpinned Crude Slump

The loonie pair started on Thursday morning from the lower vicinity of 1.3317 levels. From there, the USD/CAD upshot reaching 1.1340/50 region. The pair remained in consolidation mode for a quite while.

Crude Oil WTI Futures extended yesterday’s plunge into today’s trading session. The crude prices fell $64.44 per barrel reaching the day’s lower vicinity. The oil price slump got triggered after the International Energy Agency released the latest Oil Market report showing high inventories.

This fall in the crude helped uplift the commodity-linked currency pair USD/CAD making it touch the strong resistance of 1.3360 level. However, the loonie pair should boost with a surge in the US Dollar index which was under the consolidation phase in the morning session.

Key USD/CAD Influencing Events For The Day:

12:30 GMT (Low Volatile)

Statistics Canada will publish the February New Housing Price Index (NHPI) (YoY) & (MoM). The housing market affects the currency and NHPI provides the status of the market. The consensus has no estimates over YoY index while the previous was negative 0.1 percent. For MoM NHPI the analysts are expecting a rise in the numbers to 0.0 percent than the prior negative 0.1 percent.

17:00 GMT (Mid Volatile)

The Senior Deputy Governor of Bank of Canada, Carolyn A. Wilkins is expected to deliver a speech at the World Bank Group. The topic of the panel discussion is Capital Market Development and FinTech Revolution: Opportunities and Challenges.

12:30 GMT (Mid Volatile)

The US Department of Labor will release the following:

  • The market analysts are taking a bearish stance on the March Producer Price Index excluding Food & Energy (YoY) is set to announce. The consensus is expecting the numbers to come around 2.4 percent than the previous 2.5 percent.
  • The weekly Initial Jobless Claims (from April 5) and Counting Jobless Claims (from March 29) will appear soon. These indexes are important economic indicators in projecting the country’s economy. The analysts expect the Initial Claims to come near 211 thousand while the Counting Claims to appear around 1.738 million.

Technical Analysis

USDCAD 30 Min 11 April 2019
USDCAD 30 Min 11 April 2019

The USD/CAD was trading above the near-by 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), 55-day SMA, as well as above the significant 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA. This position of the pair develops a bullish stance on the future movements of the loonie pair. The pair found support twice at 78.6% Fibo retracement level and remained capped under the 38.2% Fibo retracement level. The bulls seem to continue rally knocking off the strong resistance of 1.3400 level.