Canadian Dollars

USD/CAD Daily Price Forecast – The Loonie Pair Flies On Crude Upswing

The USD/CAD extended the last day’s uptrend rally into the Thursday’s trading session. The loonie started off the day near 1.3344 level. Thereon, the pair went uplifting without getting undermined until 1.3369 level. Most of the candles seemed to have longer shadows showcasing buyer and seller dominations.

The primary rationale behind the loonie pair upsurge was the decline in crude prices. Oil prices had slipped on the Thursday morning after a report revealed unanticipated oil inventory numbers. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Futures dropped 0.14 percent reaching $62.37 per barrel. Brent Oil Futures settled 0.1 percent lower in the morning reaching $69.27 per barrel.

However, when the bigger picture of a year is taken, WTI is 35 percent up, and Brent is 28 percent higher. These price hikes are mainly due to the US sanctions on countries like Iran and Venezuela and the regular supply cuts from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

“Positive rhetoric regarding a U.S.-China trade deal could continue supporting crude, and even lift it higher from here,” said Tariq Zahir, managing member at the oil-focused Tyche Capital Advisors fund in New York.

At the time of writing this article (12:06 GMT), the loonie pair was trading at 1.3350 level.

Key USD/CAD Events To Have A Close Scrutiny:

12:30 GMT

The US Department of Labor will publish the Continuing Jobless Claims (CJC) and the Initial Jobless Claims (IJC) which provides the status of the US Labor Market. The CJC considers the number of unemployed and people receiving unemployment benefits. Market analysts estimate the figure to come around 0.006M lower than the previous 1.756M. The IJC is issued weekly and provides data about the people who are first timers in availing unemployment benefits. The Market analysts take on a bearish stance on the IJC with the consensus estimate of 216K to the prior 211K.

14:00 GMT

Canada’s Ivey School of Business will release the March PMI which provide data relevant to economic conditions. The previous PMI market data was 48.9 percent while on the PMI s.a.the consensus estimate of 51.1 points against the last 50.6 points.

14:30 GMT

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) will publish the US Natural Gas Storage Change report. The report is an estimated data based on a monthly survey since March 29. The Market Analysts expect an increase in the Gas volumes with 10B against the previous volume -36B.

Technical Analysis

USDCAD 5 Min 4 April 2019
USDCAD 5 Min 4 April 2019

The USD/CAD pair remained in the boundaries of the Keltner channel (KC). The USD/CAD pair shown no distortion in the KC. The pair stayed majorly on the upper vicinity between the upper bound of the KC and EMA revealing great signs of a sustained uptrend. However, while drafting this article (12:06 GMT), the pair was drifting near the lower side of the KC. The 200-day SMA, 100-day SMA, 55-day SMA, and 21-day SMA lie above the USD/CAD allowing the bears to rule the pair’s upcoming movements. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) showed the graph to stay within the standard range of 30-70 levels.