USD/CAD Rebounds Despite Soft U.S. Data

On Friday, the dollar rebounded versus the Loonie as U.S. Treasury yields rallied. The increase in the 2-year yield pulled the yield differential in favor of the greenback. The move-in Treasury yields come despite weaker than expected U.S. data. Retail Sales, Import Prices and Industrial Production all fell short of expectations.

Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD moved higher on Friday but finished the week in the red. Support is seen near the 200-day moving average at 1.25. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1.2640. The 10-day moving average crossed below the 50-day moving average, which means a short-term downtrend is in place. Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Medium-term momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. This scenario occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). The MACD histogram is printing in negative territory with a downward sloping trajectory which points to a lower exchange rate.

Import Prices Decline

Import prices dropped 0.2% last in December, the first decrease since August, after increasing 0.7% in November,. In the 12 months through December, prices rose 10.4% after advancing 11.7% in November. Expectations had been for import prices, which exclude tariffs, gaining 0.3%.