The US dollar has rallied slightly during the trading session on Friday against the Japanese yen but remains below the ¥104 level. This is a market that is most certainly a bearish one, but at this point in time I think that short-term rally should continue to offer selling opportunities. Ultimately, I do think that we break down below the ¥103.25 level and go looking towards the ¥102 level. This is mainly due to the fact that the Federal Reserve is going to flood the markets with liquidity while the Bank of Japan continues to be steadier.
USD/JPY Video 23.11.20
All things being equal, the market should be sold into at the first signs of exhaustion, as the markets have clearly shown themselves to be driven to the downside over the longer term and resisted at the 50 day EMA. The 50 day EMA sits at the ¥105 level, and therefore I think that any rally up to that level probably get sold into. It is also worth noting that the market continues to be very noisy and driven based upon the “risk on/risk off” scenario that is so common.
Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of concern around the world, and therefore I think it makes sense that the Japanese yen gets picked up going forward. I have no scenario in which a willing to buy this market anytime soon, as the area between the 50 day EMA and the 200 day EMA has been extraordinarily resistive and shows no signs of changing anytime soon.
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