The US dollar has bounced against the Japanese yen during Monday trading, as the ¥105 level continues offer support. Just above, at the ¥107 level, there seems to be a significant amount of resistance. Currently, we are simply bouncing around back and forth between these two levels. Ultimately, I do believe that we break out of this range, but this is a great proxy for what is going on in the world.
After all, the Federal Reserve is raising the bar for interest-rate hikes, but at the same time the Bank of Japan continues to be one of the loosest central banks around the world. In other words, neither one of these currencies should have a lot of traction, although recently pundits have been babbling about Shinzo Abe retiring, and the fact that monetary policy in Japan might change. That is nothing short of a fantasy at this point.
USD/JPY Video 01.09.20
That being said, it does not mean that this pair cannot fall, because quite frankly the Federal Reserve is doing everything it can to destroy the US dollar. I just think that if you are looking to short the dollar, you need to do it against other currencies. However, if this market breaks down below the ¥105 level, it is likely to test the lows again and then perhaps reach down towards the ¥102 area. To the upside, I believe that any time we get close to the ¥107 level, it is going to be time to start selling again at the first signs of exhaustion. In fact, it is not until we clear the ¥107.50 level on a daily candle that I would consider buying this market.
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