The US dollar has gone back and forth against the Japanese yen, as we continue to see strength in general. That being the case, the market is likely to continue the overall up trending channel, as we have been chopping to the upside for a little bit now. With that being the case, I think we are going to go looking towards the ¥110 level, followed by the ¥110.50 level, and then the ¥111 level. Furthermore, the 50 day EMA underneath should also offer support as it has, almost acting like a bit of a trendline for this channel.
USD/JPY Video 11.06.21
Keep in mind that this pair does tend to move right along with interest rate differential between the two countries and of course risk appetite around the world. The Japanese yen is considered to be a major “safety currency”, so therefore it gets sold off in times of “risk on attitudes.” Obviously, the exact opposite is true, so if there is a lot of concern out there, then this pair does tend to roll over and go looking towards the downside. At this point, I look at the “bottom of the trend” at the ¥107.50 level where we have bounced from, and of course we have the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
With that being said, I do think that it is more likely that we continue to see a “buy on the dip” attitude going forward, as the markets continue to see reasons to celebrate and by assets, perhaps in the simple fear of inflation eroding well. Ultimately, this is a market that I think is one that will simply continue the same action for the rest of the summer.
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