USD/JPY Price Forecast – US Dollar Gives Up Early Against Japanese Yen

The US dollar initially tried to rally against the Japanese yen, but as you can see, we have dropped a bit to show signs of weakness yet again. The ¥109 level is being threatened at the time of writing, and therefore looks even more likely that we are going to go looking towards the 200 day EMA. The market of course does pay close attention to the 200 day EMA quite often, as it is considered to be the longer-term trend defining indicator. That being said, I believe that the ¥107.50 level is much more important than that indicator.

USD/JPY Video 05.08.21

With a miss in the ADP jobs number, it should not be overly surprising to see that we continue to see a little bit of negative pressure, and therefore think it will be interesting to see what risk appetite does next. With that being the case, it is very likely that we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior, and that will be especially true as some of the numbers are suggesting that the jobs number on Friday could be a miss at this point. If that is going to be the case, it will be interesting to see how this plays out across-the-board, not just in this pair.

On the other hand, if we start to see more risk being taken, the market could turn around and take out the highs of the last couple of days, opening up the possibility of a move towards the ¥110 level, but I do not think that is going to be easy in the short term.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.