The US dollar has done very little against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Monday, as traders came back to a shortened week. Clearly though, there is a significant amount of downward pressure so at this point the scenario looks very much the same as it has for some time, meaning that we are to sell rallies. The ¥104 level should be an area of resistance, but I believe that we could continue to see a lot of noisy trading over the next couple of days.
USD/JPY Video 24.11.20
Keep in mind that this pair is highly sensitive to risk appetite but at this point in time the bank of Japan is actually tighter than the Federal Reserve, something that is very odd for me to say. However, this is where we are in the world and it does make sense that perhaps the Japanese yen continues to pick up momentum. In fact, the 50 day EMA has just crossed below the ¥105 level, which should build in a certain amount of resistance in and of itself.
That being the case, I like the idea of fading rallies all the way up to at least the ¥105 level, and even above there I think there is a certain amount of concern, due to the fact that the area between the 50 day EMA and the 200 day EMA indicators has been very difficult to get beyond, and therefore I think it should remain a “cloud of uncertainty” hanging above the market. With this, I have no interest in buying this pair, but I do have a lot of interest in selling on those rallies.
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