The US dollar has rallied a bit during the trading session on Friday as we head into the weekend defending the channel. That being said, the market should continue to go higher, and therefore the market could very well go looking towards the ¥111 level eventually. I think we are going to continue to see the more of a grind higher, following this overall channel, as the summertime trading tends to be relatively quiet anyway. With that being the case, I look at dips as buying opportunities, essentially thinking that of the 50 day EMA is going to be a bit of a trendline.
USD/JPY Video 14.06.21
Even if we break down below the 50 day EMA, then the market probably goes looking towards the ¥108 level, which is where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level currently sits. Ultimately, the market is likely to see the 200 day EMA reach towards that area as well, so all of that being taken into account, I think we are still going to look at this as an opportunity to pick up value. However, if we were to break down below the 200 day EMA, then it is very likely that we will continue to see downward pressure, and it is only at that point that I would consider being a seller.
Keep in mind that the pair does tend to be very sensitive to risk appetite, so as long as markets are essentially “happy”, then the pair tends to rise as the Japanese yen is considered to be the ultimate “safety currency.” Keeping that in mind, it looks like we are simply going to grind higher, not only in this market but several other ones.
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