The US dollar initially tried to rally during the course of the week but found the ¥105 level to be resistance. At this point in time, the market turned around to continue falling, which makes quite a bit of sense as we are concerned about the idea of risk appetite waning, meaning the people will be looking towards the Japanese yen. All things being equal, the US dollar continues to fall based upon Federal Reserve loosening, and I think that is a running theme.
USD/JPY Video 23.11.20
Looking at this chart, it is likely that we continue to reach towards the ¥103.25 level given enough time, which was the most recent bounce. However, once we break down below there, we probably go down to the ¥102 level where we had touched in that panic selloff. Rallies at this point are continued selling opportunities, as the downtrend line is very much intact, and of course the 50 day EMA, on the daily chart of course, has been right around the ¥105 region and offering massive resistance. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to offer plenty of opportunities, but you may have to do it off of the daily chart as it will be very choppy.
As far as buying is concerned, I do not have any real interest in doing so due to the fact that it would take a major shift in both central bank policies to make things change, or we would have to get some type of massive “risk on” switch in the global economy.
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