The US dollar has rallied a bit during the trading week, breaking towards the ¥108 level before dropping a bit. At this point, the market looks as if it is probably going to continue to try to rollover a bit, but the one thing that is worth paying attention to is that we are currently paying attention to three different levels, the ¥109 level above as massive resistance, the ¥107 level as a magnet for price, and then the ¥105 level as massive support. I think we are simply going to go back and forth between these ranges, and therefore have to pay attention.
USD/JPY Video 25.05.20
Remember that this pair is somewhat sensitive to risk appetite, but both of these are also “safety currency”, it is just that relatively speaking the Japanese yen is a bit more “safe.” Having said that, I think we are simply going back and forth in the 400 point range, and it does make sense that the levels come into play every time we reach them. At this point, I do believe that we are more skewed to the downside, so I prefer fading rallies more than anything else. If we were to break down below the ¥105 level, that is likely going to reach towards the ¥102.50 level. If we were to break above the ¥109 level, that would obviously be a very bullish sign but at this point I do not see any real threat of that happening unless of course we get a massive run towards the US dollar ex-Japan. Overall, I prefer fading rallies when I get an opportunity.