USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis April 18, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD is trading at 0.9869 falling from the high of 1.0011 on news from the BoC.

The Bank of Canada announced Tuesday that it will keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1%. The overnight lending rate has been kept at this level since September 2010. The bank said Canadian economic momentum is “slightly firmer”

Although U.S. builders start work on new homes at a sharply slower March pace, construction permits jump to their highest level in 3 1/2 years, data showed. Builders began construction on new U.S. homes at a slower pace in March, but permits jumped to the highest level since September 2008, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. Housing starts fell 5.8% last month to an annual rate of 654,000.

Industrial production was unchanged for the second month running in March, the Federal Reserve said. Economists had forecast a 0.3% gain. While utilities output gained 1.5%, manufacturing output slipped 0.2%

The surprise today, came from the White House, the Obama administration proposed new measures Tuesday to limit speculation in the oil markets, seeking to draw a contrast with Republicans who have been calling for more domestic drilling during a time of near record gasoline prices.

Economic Reports April 17, 2012 actual v. forecast

Apr. 17

 

AUD

 

 

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.6%

 

-1.2% 

 

-1.2% 

 

 

 

 

INR

 

 

 

Indian Interest Rate Decision 

8.00%

 

8.30% 

 

8.50% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.5%

 

2.4% 

 

2.4% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

3.5%

 

3.5% 

 

3.4% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.3% 

 

0.6% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.7%

 

2.6% 

 

2.6% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

23.4

 

20.0 

 

22.3 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

ZEW Economic Sentiment 

13.1

 

10.7 

 

11.0 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.6%

 

 

 

1.5% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Building Permits 

0.747M

 

0.710M 

 

0.715M 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Housing Starts 

0.654M

 

0.705M 

 

0.694M 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 

-0.30%

 

-1.00% 

 

-1.30% 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

1.00%

 

1.00% 

 

1.00% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.3% 

 

0.0% 

   

 

Economic Events scheduled for April 18, 2012 that affect the Canadian and American Markets

14:30:00               CAD       Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report                                              

The Bank of Canada publishes a study of economic movements in Canada. It indicates a sign of new fiscal policy. Any changes in this report tend to affect the CAD volatility. If the BoC report shows a hawkish outlook, that is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CAD, while a dovish outlook is seen as negative (or bearish).

 

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Apr 18  09:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Apr 18  09:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn 0.25% Mar 2014 Schatz

Apr 18  14:30  Sweden  Details T-bill auction on Apr 25

Apr 19  08:30  Spain  Obligacion auction

Apr 19  08:50  France  BTAN auction

Apr 19  09:30  UK  Auctions 0.125% I/L Gilt 2029

Apr 19  09:50  France  OATi auction

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