USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis August 29, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD is trading at 0.9852 seeing the Looney gain some momentum in early trading. The CAD is strong up 0.2% from yesterday’s close, but still within last week’s range. There has been limited CAD specific news, leaving the currency trading off of broader trends. Even oil prices appear contained between the conflicting risks of Isaac’s building strength and rumors of a release of US oil reserves. Technically, USDCAD’s 50day moving average has crossed bearishly below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages; however in the recent past the signal has proved only a mediocre predictor of USDCAD’s path. In the current environment, CAD has a strong correlation with equities confirming our view that the most important risk for CAD is the FOMC decision on QE3. This leaves CAD particularly vulnerable to Jackson Hole. The CAD’s performance on the crosses has shifted, trading erratically against some, like EUR and GBP but strong against others like AUD

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 28, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 28

 

AUD

 

 

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) 

-5.6%

 

 

 

2.8% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

GfK German Consumer Climate 

5.9

 

5.9 

 

5.9 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

CB Consumer Confidence 

60.6

 

66.0 

 

65.4 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD 

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 29

01:00

 

EUR

 

 

German CPI (YoY) 

1.8% 

 

1.7% 

 

 

 

08:00

 

CHF

 

 

KOF Leading Indicators 

1.50 

 

1.43 

 

 

 

13:00

 

EUR

 

 

German CPI (MoM) 

0.2% 

 

0.4% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

1.7% 

 

1.5% 

 

 

 

15:00

 

USD

 

 

Pending Home Sales (MoM) 

1.0% 

 

-1.4% 

 

 

 

19:00

 

USD

 

 

Beige Book 

         

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

29/8  11:00  Italy 

29/8  19:00  US 

30/8  05:35  Japan

30/8  11:00  Italy 

30/8  19:00  US

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