USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis February 28, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

07:00     EUR        GfK German Consumer Climate            6.1                          5.9           

The Gfk German Consumer Climate Index measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. The data is compiled from a survey of about 2,000 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of past and future economic conditions.    

08:15     CHF        Employment Level                4.03M                   4.02M    

The Employment Level measures the number of people employed during the previous quarter. Job creation is an important indicator of consumer spending.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF.            

 Tent      CHF       SNB Board Member Jordan Speaks

Swiss National Bank (SNB) Vice Chairman (May 2007 – January 2012) Thomas Jordan is to speak. In January 2010 his title changed from Board Member to Vice Chairman. As a member of the SNB’s Governing Board, which sets short term interest rates, he has a major influence over the value of the Swiss franc. Traders watch his speeches closely as they are often used to drop subtle hints regarding future monetary policy and interest rate shifts.                                                     

 11:00    GBP      CBI Distributive Trades Survey                  -14                          -22           

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Distributive Trades Survey (DTS) measures the health of the retail sector. The reading is compiled from a survey covering 20,000 firms responsible for 40% of employment in retailing. It includes measures of sales activity across the distributive trades. It is a leading indicator of consumer spending. The figure is the difference between the percentage of retailers reporting an increase in sales and those reporting a decrease. 

 Tent      EUR       German CPI (MoM)                   0.5%                      -0.4%    

The German Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

13:30     USD      Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)            0.0%                      2.2%

13:30     USD      Durable Goods Orders (MoM)               -0.8%                     3.0%

Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, including transportation items.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

 15:00    USD      CB Consumer Confidence                       63.0                        61.1

Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism.

Analysis and Recommendations:

After climbing to 1.0049 the USD/CAD dropped down to 0.9991, as the dollar rose on most major rivals as the euro fell prey to apparent profit-taking in quiet trading Monday, after the Group of 20 nations refused to boost funding for the International Monetary Fund until the euro zone boosts the size of its own firewall.

Pending home sales climbed 2% in January to the highest level since April 2010, when buyers were taking advantage of a now-expired tax credit. The pending-home-sales index rose to 97.0 from a downwardly revised 95.1 reading in December, the National Association of Realtors reported Monday.

 

Today’s economic releases actual v. forecast

EUR

 

 

 

French PPI (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.3%

 

-0.1%

 

 

EUR

 

   

M3 Money Supply (YoY) 

2.5%

 

1.8%

 

1.5%

   

EUR

 

   

Private Loans (YoY) 

1.1%

 

1.2%

 

1.0%

 

 

EUR

 

   

Italian Business Confidence 

91.5

 

92.0

 

92.1

   

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 28  01:30  Japan  Auctions 2Y JGBs

Feb 28  10:10  Italy   BTP/CCTeu auction

Feb 28  10:30  Belgium  Auctions 3 & 6M T-bills

Feb 28  15:30  UK  Details gilt auctions on Mar 06 & Mar 07

Feb 29  10:10  Sweden  Auctions T-bills

Feb 29  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn 2.0% Jan 2022 Bund

Feb 29  15:30  Sweden  Details nominal bond auction on Mar 07

Mar 01  09:30  Spain  Bono auction

Mar 01  09:50  France  OAT auction

Mar 01  10.30  UK  Auctions 4.0% 2022 conventional Gilt

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *