USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis May 25, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD in early trading continues to climb, with the Looney having no strength to combat the risk aversion mode of the markets. The pair is trading for 1.0263 with the USD picking up 0.0010.

In this environment equities are higher even as equity volatility has also shifted higher, oil dropped briefly below $90 before recovering (low oil prices helps to offset the negative growth outlook on the back of weak PMIs); bond yields are mixed and the USD is shifting weaker at this time against most of its partners.

US eco data showed a drop in durable goods which came in below forecast along with a lackluster jobless report, but the CAD still was not able to push against the USD.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data for May 24, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

May 24

03:30

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese HSBC Mfg PMI 

48.70

 

 

 

49.30 

 

 

 

07:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German GDP (QoQ) 

0.5%

 

0.5% 

 

0.5% 

 

 

 

07:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German GDP (YoY) 

1.7%

 

1.7% 

 

1.7% 

 

 

 

07:58

 

EUR

 

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

44.4

 

47.0 

 

46.9 

 

 

 

08:28

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

45.0

 

47.0 

 

46.2 

 

 

 

09:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Ifo Business Climate

106.9

 

109.4 

 

109.9 

 

 

 

09:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

45.0

 

46.1 

 

45.9 

 

 

 

09:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Current Assessment 

113.3

 

117.4 

 

117.5 

 

 

 

09:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Business Expectations 

100.9

 

102.0 

 

102.7 

 

 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

BBA Mortgage Approvals 

32.4K

 

32.3K 

 

31.9K 

 

 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

Business Investment (QoQ) 

3.6%

 

3.2% 

 

-3.3% 

 

 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.3%

 

-0.2% 

 

-0.2% 

 

 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

GDP (YoY) 

-0.1%

 

0.0% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Core Durable Goods Orders

-0.6%

 

0.9% 

 

-0.8% 

   

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.5% 

 

-3.7% 

   

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

370K

 

370K 

 

372K 

   

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3260K

 

3250K 

 

3289K 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CAD and USD

May 25

TBD

ALL

 

G8 Meetings

     

13:55

USD

 

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

     

 

 

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