USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis May 29, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD is trading at 1.0253 slightly down at present. With US markets closed today, the no eco data from Europe investors created their own fantasy world in early trading, as sentiment turned positive on hopes from Greece but later were awakened by growing problems in Spain. The DI dropped in the morning and climbed back to its prior level before markets in Europe closed.

EUR rallied in the Asian session after a weekend poll suggested that the Greek pro‐bailout New Democracy had gained an advantage over the radical left anti‐bailout Syriza; however polls remain tight and risk is high, even with a ND win. News reports this weekend suggest that Greece will run out of cash on June 20th. This combined with ongoing reports of bank withdrawals poses a major problem for the country. The IMF is unlikely to extend their requirement that Greece reach a debt level of 120% by 2020, leaving Greece increasingly vulnerable to another round of debt relief or default. However, this time the public sector would be more materially hit, since there is limited debt held by the private sector.

Spanish yields are moving rapidly higher as the banking sector is under pressure and potential recapitalization costs are large.

There is no US data today, leaving the market to focus on how sustainable today’s rally is and upcoming events, including President Draghi’s comments on Wednesday and nonfarm payrolls on Friday

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 

Previous

 

May 29

13:00

USD

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y

-3.5%

14:00

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

69.2

 

May 30

12:30

CAD

RMPI m/m

-1.6%

14:00

USD

Pending Home Sales m/m

4.1%

 

May 31

12:15

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

119K

12:30

CAD

Current Account

-10.3B

12:30

USD

Prelim GDP q/q

2.2%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

370K

13:45

USD

Chicago PMI

56.2

15:00

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

0.9M

 

Jun 1

12:30

CAD

GDP m/m

-0.2%

12:30

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

115K

12:30

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.1%

12:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index m/m

0.2%

12:30

USD

Personal Spending m/m

0.3%

14:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

54.8

 

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